何时找到石油的替代品？
依然来自SCIENCE的125个不解之迷。
历史上，人类曾经长期利用木材作为能源，后来煤炭和水利出现了，开始了工业化的进程。石油的利用更使得人类在很长的时间里高枕无忧。
石油的价格一路狂涨，地球两极的冰在融化，人类能否像以往一样幸运地摆脱能源的危机呢？这取决于三个问题：何时地球上的石油会枯竭？石油燃烧释放的二氧化碳对大气的影响到底有多大？人们能否找到替代石油的廉价能源？答案存在于科学和技术的进步中，但整个社会的应对策略却是最现实的问题。
全球每年对石油的需求以1%~2%的速度递增，每秒钟都在消耗掉1000 桶的石油。悲观主义者（主要是石油勘探人员）认为十年内石油就会被采光。而乐观主义者坚持石油的产量更大地取决于经济和政治因素，而不是地下有多少石油。随着探测技术的改进，产量还会增加。即使如此，本世纪中叶也是一个大限。考虑到对气候的影响，找到石油的替代品势在必行。
太阳能是一个选择，理论上可以提供地球上所需能源的6600倍，但若要普及，价格要降低100倍才能被消费者接受。风能以及核能也很充裕。但核能涉及放射性物质的污染和泄露隐患，以及利用和维护的费用不菲。风能倒是很廉价，每度电的代价只有4.5美分，但受制于地域以及天气的变化。
到本世纪中叶，全球对能源的需求将增长3~5倍，可重复利用的能源也是要考虑的问题，目前在美国再生能源在所有能源中只占6%。纳米技术或许可以提高太阳能利用的效率，或者从阳光，CO2和水中制造出化学燃料。
这些能否变成现实取决于我们对能源问题的重视程度，基于科学的全球的行动尤其重要。
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Comment by shusurvey — September 27, 2006 @ 4:09 am
Dear Sir/Madam:
We are researchers from Shih Hsin University and are launching a new
survey, this is non-profit academic research. In this survey, we would
like to know your opinions about the topics of adoption and safety of
new energy related technology, and your opinion about Kyoto Protocol
related media issues. Your answers will produce valuable information
for our researchers. Your personal details will not be made publicly
available. You can find the URL as below:
http://www.e-mediasurvey.com
As thanks for your participating in our survey, we offer four
screen savers. The screen savers will be available for download on the
final page of the questionnaire. They include photos of BMW H2R
hydrogen vehicle, BMW hybrid car, Honda hybrid cars 2001-2006 and
Honda fuel cell vehicles. Would you please complete the questionnaire
as part of the survey? Thank you for your cooperation.
Project Leader: Mavis Tsai, Ph.D.
Co-project Leader: Scott Warren, Ph.D.
Researchers: PingYuan Sun, BiTing Qiou, YunZe Que
Sponsorship:
UNIDO-ICHET
The CCS Global Group
Screen Saver photos authorized by BMW, Honda.
Comment by shu — November 12, 2006 @ 4:44 am